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评估臭氧污染和气候变化对冬季小麦的影响:流量建模与剂量反应建模

Xiaochen Zhu¹, Hengxin Dong², Yawen Huang³

¹Jiangsu Provincial University Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Ecological Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, Jiangsu, China; Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, College of Agriculture, Food and Environment, University of Kentucky, Lexington, 40546, Kentucky, United States.

Journal of environmental management

|May 21, 2025

概括

表面臭氧污染会损害农作物,降低产量和生产力. 这项研究引入了一种新的臭氧流模型,以更好地预测这些影响,并警告由于农作物损失的增加而导致粮食危机恶化.

科学领域:

农业科学农业科学
环境科学环境科学
大气化学大气化学

背景情况:

表面臭氧是一种有害的空气污染物,影响植物生理学.
臭氧损害降低了作物产量,影响了农业生产率.
现有的模型可能无法完全捕捉臭氧对作物的复杂影响.

研究的目的:

为农业生态系统模型开发和验证新的臭氧流量模块.
加强对地表臭氧对冬季小麦产量和GPP的影响的预测.
研究臭氧与气候变化因素对作物生产的相互作用.

主要方法:

开发了一种新的臭氧流模块,集成到农业生态系统模型中.
使用来自多个地点的历史观测数据对模块进行校准和评估.
在未来的气候和臭氧场景下,应用该模型来模拟冬季小麦的反应.

主要成果:

新的臭氧流模型显示对臭氧度的敏感性更高,预测了更大的GPP和产量损失.
模拟显示了气候变化加剧的大量作物损失,特别是在高排放场景下.
研究了臭氧与环境因素 (温度,降雨,二氧化碳) 之间的相互作用.

结论:

对臭氧影响的准确建模对于农业生产率和粮食安全至关重要.
气候变化加剧的臭氧污染对粮食生产构成重大威胁.
开发的臭氧流模块为农作物对空气污染的反应提供了改进的预测能力.

关键词:

农业生态系统建模剂量反应效应的影响.臭氧流是指臭氧的流量.臭氧污染臭氧污染冬季小麦冬季小麦

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