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在全球气候变化下,预测Changnienia amoena在中国的当前和未来的潜在分布

Xingjian Liu¹, Qimeng Sun¹, Tingting Li²

¹Institute of Botany, Jiangsu Province and Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, 210014, China.

Scientific reports

|May 21, 2025

概括

气候变化将改变一个有价值的兰花Changnienia amoena的分布. 预计未来适合息地将向西北移动,强调需要保护战略.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
保护生物学保护生物学
生物地理学生物地理学生物地理学

背景情况:

中国陆地兰花Changnienia amoena,具有重要的装饰和药用价值.
了解气候变化下的分布对于保护和可持续发展至关重要.

研究的目的:

预测C. amoena在未来气候变化场景下的潜在地理分布.
确定影响其分布的关键环境变量.
为保护和利用战略提供指导.

主要方法:

使用了48个分布记录和19个环境变量.
采用MaxEnt模型进行模拟和预测.
分析了2050年代和2090年代共享社会经济路径 (SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5) 的分布模式.

主要成果:

马克森特模型实现了高精度 (AUC=0.990,CBI=0.959).
关键变量包括最冷月份的最低温度,年度降水,同热度,土地利用,斜率,土壤质地,海拔和碳酸.
适合息地预计在SSP1-2.6下略微收缩,在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5.5下向西北移动/扩张.

结论:

气候变化对C. amoena的分布产生重大影响,温度和降水是主要的驱动因素.
未来适合息地可能会转移到更高的度和高度.
这些发现为C. amoena.的现场保护,现场培养和可持续利用提供了关键的指导.

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