空间时间趋势和降雨模式的变化,使用创新的多边形趋势分析方法,用于印度Shetrunji盆地
Kartik Mukeshbhai Charania1, Jayantilal N Patel2
1Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology, Surat, Gujarat, India. kartikrockss10@gmail.com.
概括
印度每月降雨量分析.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 有效的水资源管理和气候适应对谢特鲁吉盆地至关重要.
- 了解区域降雨模式对于可持续发展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从1971年到2023年,分析印度谢特伦吉盆地的每月降雨趋势.
- 用先进的分析方法评估降雨模式的空间和时间变化.
主要方法:
- 非参数统计试验:曼-肯德尔 (MK) 试验,修改的MK和森斯斜率估计器.
- 创新的多边形趋势分析 (IPTA) 用于检测季内和非线性降雨变化.
- 来自盆地各地多个雨量测量站的数据分析.
主要成果:
- 季风前降雨量没有显著的趋势.
- 季风降雨呈现空间变化,在博加迪亚,托达和奇罗德站显著增加趋势.
- IPTA揭示了季风季节内降雨分布的变化,包括延迟的峰值和潜在的强化.
结论:
- 雨量变化在塞特伦吉盆地是不均的,一些地区经历了不断增加的季风降雨.
- 缺少季风前后的变化可能会加剧季节性水资源短缺.
- 特定于地点的适应性水资源规划是必要的,以应对观察到的降雨变化.
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