上部胃肠道癌症的诊断风险预测模型:系统性审查
Tyler Seyhan Saunders1, Pawandeep Virpal1, Maria Andreou2
1Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom.
概括
风险预测模型对早期检测上部胃肠道 (UGI) 癌症充满希望. 一些经过验证的模型显示出良好的性能,表明了改善患者鉴定和调查的潜力.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 上部胃肠道 (UGI) 癌症经常存在于晚期,阻碍有效治疗.
- 通过风险预测模型的早期检测可以识别高风险个体,以便及时进行调查.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查和综合UGI癌症诊断风险预测模型的证据.
- 评估现有的UGI癌症风险预测模型的性能和特征.
主要方法:
- 在MEDLINE,Embase和CENTRAL的系统文献搜索UGI癌症风险预测模型研究.
- 包括报告定量模型性能指标的研究.
- 对模型开发,验证,预测和性能指标的分析.
主要成果:
- 82项研究描述了162种胰腺,胃,食道,胆囊和胆道癌的UGI风险模型.
- 物流回归是常见的,机器学习的使用越来越多.
- 只有33个模型接受了外部验证,其中15个实现了曲线下的面积 (AUC) ≥0.80.
结论:
- 一些UGI癌症风险预测模型在外部验证后表现强.
- 需要进一步的研究来比较表现最佳的模型并评估它们的临床实用性,成本效益和可接受性.
- 由于重叠的风险因素,存在开发集成的UGI多癌症预测模型的潜力.
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