冠状不确定的黑色细胞瘤的恶性转变
Arun D Singh1, Yehonatan Weinberger1,2, Emily C Zabor3,4
1Department of Ophthalmic Oncology, Cole Eye Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio.
JAMA ophthalmology
|May 22, 2025
概括
使用当前模型预测不确定的黑色素细胞瘤 (IMTs) 中恶性转变的准确性是次优的. 这些模型可能导致过度治疗,突出显示需要改进胸腔神经和IMT风险评估的诊断方法.
科学领域:
- 眼科医生 眼科 眼科
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 医疗成像医学成像
背景情况:
- 准确预测不确定的黑色细胞瘤 (IMTs) 恶性转变的风险,对于适当的患者管理至关重要.
- 目前用于胆道神经和IMT的预测模型的准确性尚不清楚,可能导致过度治疗或治疗不足.
研究的目的:
- 估计患有不确定的黑色细胞瘤 (IMTs) 的患者队列中恶性转变的5年风险.
- 评估协作眼睛黑色素瘤研究 (COMS) 和威尔斯眼科医院 (WEH) 模型在预测恶性转变方面的准确性.
主要方法:
- 一项队列研究包括123名被诊断为IMT的患者,分为良性 (大) 或恶性 (小黑色素瘤).
- 使用COMS和WEH预测模型计算了恶性转变的5年Kaplan-Meier概率.
- 使用Youden指数确定了最佳切割点,以评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 无论是COMS还是WEH模型,都显示出IMT恶性转变的预测准确度低于最佳.
- 这些模型预测了观察到的黑色素瘤的平均5年黑色素瘤概率为0.39 (COMS) 和0.44 (WEH).
- 对于观察到的 nevi,预测的概率为0.18 (COMS) 和0.31 (WEH),表明了显著的重叠和错误分类的可能性.
结论:
- 目前IMT恶性转变的预测模型是不理想的,可能导致约30%的患者过度治疗.
- 需要进一步研究和验证胆管神经和IMT的替代预测方法.
- 改善风险分层对于准确诊断和眼球黑色细胞病变的管理至关重要.
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