探索骑自行车者对不安全感,碰撞风险和荷兰城市的暴露之间的关系
Teun Uijtdewilligen1, Mehmet Baran Ulak2, Gert Jan Wijlhuizen1
1SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research, Henri Faasdreef 312, 2492 JP The Hague, The Netherlands.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|May 25, 2025
概括
骑自行车者的安全感知和碰撞风险一致,但随着越来越多的骑自行车者,感知不安全性增加的速度越来越快,这可能表明安全性-人数效应. 对机动车辆的更高暴露逐渐增加了这两种风险.
科学领域:
- 运输科学 运输科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 评估骑自行车者道路安全需要客观 (碰撞数据) 和主观 (感知安全) 的措施.
- 有限的研究同时检查这些安全措施与暴露指标一起.
- 了解安全感知和实际碰撞风险之间的相互作用对于有效干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定骑自行车者的感知不安全性和客观撞车风险之间的相关性和空间对齐.
- 分析这些安全措施与荷兰主要城市的骑自行车者和机动车辆暴露的关系.
- 调查"数字安全"效应及其在自行车运动中的潜在限制.
主要方法:
- 结合了以前客观道路安全和感知安全研究的数据和模型.
- 定义感知不安全性为骑自行车者将道路段评为不安全的概率.
- 定义的碰撞风险是自行车在路段发生碰撞的概率.
主要成果:
- 在感知不安全性和碰撞风险之间发现了显著的正相关性.
- 随着骑自行车者的暴露率的增加,感知到的不安全性比碰撞风险更大,这表明安全性在人数上有影响.
- 超过骑自行车者暴露的某个值,撞车风险不成比例地增加.
- 增加对机动车辆的接触导致感知不安全性和碰撞风险的逐渐增加.
结论:
- 感知到的道路不安全性通常反映了实际的自行车撞车风险.
- 较高的骑自行车人数最初提高了安全性 (安全性-数量),但最终可能会增加碰撞风险.
- 干预措施应考虑客观的安全数据和骑自行车者的看法,特别是在骑自行车者和车辆流量较高的地区.
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