调整风险评估以适应不断变化的恐怖主义局面:修订极端主义风险指南
Jonathan Kenyon1, Adam J Carter1, Sian Watson1
1Counter Terrorism Assessment and Rehabilitation Centre, His Majesty's Prison and Probation Service, London, UK.
Journal of forensic sciences
|May 28, 2025
概括
极端主义风险指南修订版 (ERG-R) 更新了英格兰和威尔士的恐怖主义风险评估. 它结合了新的因素,如在线激进化和保护措施,以更好地进行动态风险管理.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 法医心理学 法医心理学
- 安全研究 安全研究
背景情况:
- 自2011年以来,ERG22+框架一直指导恐怖主义风险评估.
- 恐怖主义格局已经发生了变化,网络激进化和年轻罪犯的数量增加.
研究的目的:
- 更新并将ERG22+框架扩展到ERG-R.
- 通过纳入新的因素和维度来加强恐怖主义风险评估.
主要方法:
- 文献综述 文献综述 文献综述
- 与惩戒服务咨询和认证委员会 (CSAAP) 进行商.
- 外部同行评审是指外部的同行评审.
- 在监狱和社区环境中进行了为期12个月的试点研究.
主要成果:
- 该ERG-R包括四个维度的36个因素:参与,意图,能力和保护/降低风险的因素.
- 修订后的框架与结构化专业判断 (SPJ) 方法相一致.
- ERG-R促进了动态风险评估,跟踪随时间的变化,并告知案例优先级.
结论:
- 该ERG-R为恐怖主义风险评估提供了增强的操作指导.
- 它用更细微的案例管理方法取代了固定的风险水平.
- 该框架可适应在英格兰和威尔士以外的地区使用.
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