全球流行病学,负担和未来预测的:从1990年到2050年的全面分析
Yungang Hu1,2, Yaling Zhao2, Huimin Wu2
1Department of Burns and Plastic Surgery, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
概括
皮,或压力损伤,在全球范围内显示出越来越多的发病率和患病率. 虽然年龄标准化率正在下降,但未来的趋势预测病例和死亡人数将继续增长.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 皮肤病学 皮肤病学
背景情况:
- (压力损伤) 是普遍存在的,难以愈合的伤口,具有显著的复发率.
- 有限的数据存在于全球流行病学负担和长期趋势的.
- 了解这些趋势对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2021年,分析全球病的流行病学特征和疾病负担.
- 预测从2022年到2050年的发病发病率,流行率和死亡率的未来趋势.
- 为了识别疾病负担的人口和区域差异.
主要方法:
- 利用了2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据,涵盖了204个国家和地区 (1990-2021).
- 分析了患病率,发病率,死亡率和根据残疾调整的寿命年 (DALYs),包括年龄标准化率 (ASRs).
- 采用自回归集成移动平均和指数平滑模型来预测未来的趋势 (2022-2050年).
主要成果:
- 在全球范围内,从1990年到2021年,的发病率,患病率,死亡率和DALYs增加,而ASR则下降.
- 老年人群的发病率,流行率和死亡率最高.
- 高收入地区的发病率/流行率更高,而撒哈拉以南非洲的死亡率/DALY率更高. 更高的SDI与更高的发病率/流行率相关,但死亡率/DALYs较低.
结论:
- 在全球范围内,腹的负担正在增加,尤其影响老年人.
- 未来的预测表明,到2050年,病例,死亡和DALY数量将继续增加.
- 预计年龄标准化率将稳定下来,这表明与人口变化相对应的管理可能有所改善.
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