使用例行监测数据和调查数据预测地方一级的疫苗接种覆盖率估计
Deepit Bhatia1, Natasha Crowcroft2, Sébastien Antoni2
1Pennsylvania State University, United States.
Vaccine
|May 28, 2025
概括
常规收集的麻疹监测数据可以预测地方接种疫苗覆盖率,提供比传统方法更准确和及时的估计. 这种方法有助于确定需要有针对性的干预措施以提高麻疹免疫率的地区.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 疫苗学 疫苗学 疫苗学
背景情况:
- 麻疹疫苗接种显著减少了疾病负担,但覆盖率差异仍然存在.
- 准确的地方疫苗接种覆盖率数据对于有针对性的干预至关重要.
- 估计覆盖范围的现有方法在准确性,及时性和空间分辨率方面存在局限性.
研究的目的:
- 探索常规收集的基于病例的监测数据的使用,以预测次国家麻疹疫苗接种覆盖率.
- 开发和验证使用监测数据估计疫苗接种覆盖率的模型.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自18个世卫组织非洲地区国家的综合麻疹病例数据.
- 导出了三个监测指标:疑似病例的平均年龄,接种疫苗的比例和IgM阴性病例的比例.
- 开发了一种使用人口和健康调查 (DHS) 作为黄金标准的β回归模型,将预测与保留的DHS估计进行比较.
主要成果:
- 监督指标与DHS覆盖率的相关性比行政估计更强.
- 样本之外的预测与基于DHS的覆盖率取得了很高的相关性 (rho = 0.74).
- 该模型证明了监测数据在预测疫苗接种覆盖率方面的有效性.
结论:
- 常规收集的麻疹监测数据可以有效地预测地方接种疫苗的覆盖率.
- 这种方法提供了优于行政数据的年度估计,比调查更容易获得.
- 能够及时识别覆盖率较低的地区,以促进有针对性的公共卫生干预.
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