一种风险预测模型,用于脑转移患者的发育
Seraj Makkawi1, Shatha Alqurashi2, Toka Banjar2
1College of Medicine, King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Department of Neurology, Ministry of the National Guard-Health Affairs, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Seizure
|May 29, 2025
概括
大脑转移 (BM) 患者的发作是由皮质干涉,膜转移和女性性别预测的. 一个新的模型有助于识别潜在的预防性治疗的高风险个体.
科学领域:
- 神经瘤学神经瘤学
- 神经学 神经学
- 医学统计 医学统计
背景情况:
- 关于脑转移 (BM) 患者的发病率和风险因素的数据有限.
- 了解这些因素对于患者管理和风险分层至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在BM患者中调查发病率模式与放射学和临床因素的关系.
- 开发一种基于发作风险的BM患者分层的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 从2016年7月到2023年1月对272名BM患者进行了回顾性分析.
- 单变量回归分析以确定风险因素.
- 使用AUC-ROC和bootstrapping开发和内部验证一个预测模型.
主要成果:
- 在29.4%的患者中诊断出 (80/272).
- 皮质干扰 (OR 28.08),脑膜质转移 (OR 11.2) 和女性性别 (OR 2.67) 是显著的预测因素.
- 预测模型实现了AUC-ROC的81.89%.
结论:
- 女性性别,皮质干涉和乳腺质转移是BM患者发作的重要预测因素.
- 开发的模型可以帮助识别潜在的预防性抗发作药物的高风险患者.
- 建议在更大的队列中进一步验证.
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