在Omicron之后,COVID-19监控系统的灵敏度是否发生了变化? 这是一项在英格兰进行的回顾性观察性研究
Julii Brainard1,2, Iain R Lake3,4, Roger A Morbey3,5
1Norwich Medical School, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK. j.brainard@uea.ac.uk.
BMC infectious diseases
|May 29, 2025
概括
英国的COVID-19监测系统通常跟踪病例趋势,但其准确性各不相同. 在三角洲变种期间,确认率最高,尽管在不同变种中没有任何单一系统保持一致的可靠性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
背景情况:
- 多个COVID-19监测系统 (SS) 在大流行期间监测了英格兰的病例.
- 监测灵敏度可能受到新变种,疫苗接种和自然感染的影响.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较英格兰不同COVID-19监测系统的性能.
- 为了识别最敏感和最及时的追踪器.
- 评估变种优势如何影响监测准确性.
主要方法:
- 从十个流行病追踪器 (2021年9月至2022年6月) 的时间序列数据使用斯皮尔曼相关性进行了分析.
- 系统被分为"最佳"标准追踪器或补充追踪器.
- 评估了Delta,Omicron BA.1和BA.2主导期间的发现百分比和统计差异.
主要成果:
- 在研究期间,大多数补充追踪器与最佳追踪器呈现出正相关性.
- 在 BA.1 到 BA.2 过渡期间观察到相关性下降,但很小.
- 在德尔塔变种期间的确诊率最高,在变种占主导地位的时期之间发现了统计学上显著的差异.
结论:
- 补充监测系统通常反映了从2021年9月到2022年6月的COVID-19病例趋势.
- 没有一个单独的补充追踪器在所有变异时期都表现出高稳定性.
- 除了变种优势之外的因素可能影响了监控系统的性能.
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