使用基础模型估计工资差异
Keyon Vafa1, Susan Athey2,3, David M Blei4,5
1Harvard Data Science Initiative, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138.
概括
基础模型可以为社会科学估计任务进行微调,解决遗漏的变量偏差. 新方法揭示了职业生涯的历史.
科学领域:
- 机器学习和社会科学
- 计量经济学和因果推理
背景情况:
- 基础模型,最初用于文本,现在在社会科学数据预测方面表现出色.
- 标准微调将预测误差降到最低,但社会科学估计需要不同的成功标准.
- 在社会科学中使用预测模型进行估计时,遗漏的变量偏差是一个关键的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 开发用于微调社会科学估计问题的基础模型的方法.
- 在微调基础模型中描述和减轻遗漏的变量偏差.
- 应用这些方法来估计性别工资差距,使用更丰富的职业历史数据.
主要方法:
- 在标准基础模型微调中特征性遗漏变量偏差.
- 从微调的基础模型中开发了[公式:参见文本]一致估计的理论条件.
- 创建了新的微调算法,以实证地减少遗漏的变量偏差.
- 利用定制的基础模型进行深入的职业生涯历史表现.
主要成果:
- 确定了使用微调基础模型可靠估计的条件.
- 经验证明了遗漏变量偏差的缓解.
- 发现职业生涯历史解释的性别工资差距比标准经济学模型建议的更多.
- 突出了传统模型遗漏的特定职业生涯历史元素,但对于解释工资差距至关重要.
结论:
- 用专门的算法微调基础模型可以克服社会科学估计中标准预测方法的局限性.
- 更丰富的变量表示,如职业历史,对于准确估计性别工资差距等社会现象至关重要.
- 开发的方法通过减少估计偏差,为复杂的社会问题提供了更细致的理解.
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