综合分布建模解决了蝙蝠数量影响和占用趋势之间的异步,通过潜在的丰富性来解决这一问题
Bradley J Udell1, Christian Stratton2, Kathryn M Irvine3
1United States Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Fort Collins, CO, USA. bradjudell@gmail.com.
Communications biology
|May 30, 2025
概括
监测像三色蝙蝠 (Perimyotis subflavus) 这样的神秘物种是困难的. 综合物种分布模型 (MS-iSDM) 显示,种群数量大幅下降,丰度下降了74.8%,占用率下降了35.5%.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 野生动物管理 野生动物管理
背景情况:
- 监测具有季节性生命周期的神秘物种存在重大挑战.
- 传统方法通常涉及从多种现场技术收集数据,并将其作为单独的证据线进行分析.
- 整合不同的数据源可以提高准确性和范围,但面临着分辨率不一致和观测不确定性的障碍.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用北美蝙蝠的多规模综合物种分布模型 (MS-iSDM).
- 结合来自不同监测类型和季节的数据,以进行更全面的人口评估.
- 分析了11年的危三色蝙蝠 (Perimyotis subflavus) 的数据,以了解人口趋势.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种使用联合概率方法的多规模综合物种分布模型 (MS-iSDM).
- 纳入了对虚假负数和虚假正数进行计算的观测模型.
- 综合季节性迁徙连接性和多层次生态预测指标.
主要成果:
- 该MS-iSDM揭示了三色蝙蝠种群减少的明显模式.
- 丰度下降了74.8% (95%CRI:-79.7%至-69.3%),与白鼻综合征影响有很强的相关性.
- 占用率下降了35.5% (95%CRI:-41.1%至-30.2%),特别是在范围的边缘.
结论:
- 综合模型提供了共识估计,提高了精度和时空范围,而不是单独分析多个证据线.
- 占用率和丰度下降之间的异步趋势是由丰度的时空变化解释的.
- 这项研究加强了三色蝙蝠数量显著下降的证据,突出了综合建模方法的实用性.
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