珊瑚石灰化下降将使二十一世纪的海洋碳吸收量增加到千兆
Lester Kwiatkowski1, Alban Planchat2, Marc Pyolle2
1Laboratoire d'océanographie et du climat: expérimentations et approches numériques, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Institut de recherche pour le développement, Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, Paris 75005, France.
概括
珊瑚礁对气候变化很敏感,它们的化程度下降可能会增加海洋的碳沉积. 这种反循环影响全球碳预算和实现净零排放的可行性.
科学领域:
- 海洋生物学 海洋生物学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 生物地质化学生物地质化学
背景情况:
- 珊瑚礁对海洋变暖和酸化非常敏感.
- 根据各种排放情景,预计珊瑚石灰化下降.
- 减少珊瑚化对全球碳循环的影响尚未完全理解.
研究的目的:
- 量化减少珊瑚礁化对海洋碳吸收的影响.
- 为了估计度和由于珊瑚礁化变化的溶解无机碳流.
- 将珊瑚礁的反纳入全球碳循环模型.
主要方法:
- 综合有关珊瑚礁化对气候变化敏感性的数据.
- 使用珊瑚礁分布产品来估计流动.
- 采用全球海洋生物地球化学模型来模拟不同排放场景下的碳吸收.
主要成果:
- 减少珊瑚礁碳酸盐生产,可以在本世纪中叶之前提高海洋碳沉积量高达1.25 GtCO2 y−1.
- 到2300年,海洋的累积碳吸收可能会增加13%.
- 在模拟中考虑了当今化速率的不确定性.
结论:
- 对珊瑚礁反的计算增加了对全球变暖值的剩余碳预算的估计.
- 这些发现表明,在没有负排放的情况下实现净零排放的可能性更大.
- 珊瑚礁反机制是未来气候预测的一个关键因素.
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