用状态空间建模进行非图形时差预测:算法开发和验证研究
Eric Pulick1, John Curtin2, Yonatan Mintz1
1Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States.
JMIR formative research
|June 3, 2025
概括
与传统的机器学习相比,国家空间模型 (SSM) 对精神健康状况,如酒精使用障碍 (AUD) 的风险预测优越. 这些特征模型可以个性化患者护理,在有足够的数据的情况下改善结果.
科学领域:
- 心理健康 心理健康
- 数字健康数字健康
- 预测建模预测建模
背景情况:
- 心理健康状况需要长期的患者监测和个性化治疗.
- 数字传感和预测建模可以提高临床医生的能力和个性化护理.
- 对个体患者个性化模型适应的异形学方法特别感兴趣.
研究的目的:
- 为了弥合风险预测和精神健康中的特征时间序列建模.
- 为患者风险预测提供状态空间建模 (SSM) 作为机器学习 (ML) 分类器的替代方案.
- 评估SSM与ML分类器对预测酒精使用障碍 (AUD) 中的失误进行SSM的评估.
主要方法:
- 一项为期3个月的观察性研究,对148名参与者进行了早期AUD恢复.
- 用日常生态瞬间评估 (EMA) 数据训练了非图形状态空间模型 (SSM).
- 对SSM预测性能进行了比较,对后勤回归和梯度增强ML分类器使用AUROC进行了比较,用于在3,7和同一天间隔预测失效.
主要成果:
- 与拥有30天或更长时间EMA数据的ML分类器相比,SSM显示出更高的平均AUROC性能.
- 有了足够的数据 (≥30天),SSM显示出高概率的最佳性能预测同日,3日和7天的失效.
- 预测性能因有限的数据 (15天) 而有所不同,SSM在同一天失效预测方面表现优于ML.
结论:
- 在心理健康风险预测方面,SSM为传统的ML提供了令人信服的替代方案.
- SSM支持对罕见结果进行自我模型拟合,并提供增强的预测性能.
- 统一管理机制的框架可以超出风险预测范围,以优化各种心理健康状况的治疗选择.
相关概念视频
State Space Representation
301
The frequency-domain technique, commonly used in analyzing and designing feedback control systems, is effective for linear, time-invariant systems. However, it falls short when dealing with nonlinear, time-varying, and multiple-input multiple-output systems. The time-domain or state-space approach addresses these limitations by utilizing state variables to construct simultaneous, first-order differential equations, known as state equations, for an nth-order system.
Consider an RLC circuit, a...
Consider an RLC circuit, a...
301
State Space to Transfer Function
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The conversion of state-space representation to a transfer function is a fundamental process in system analysis. It provides a method for transitioning from a time-domain description to a frequency-domain representation, which is crucial for simplifying the analysis and design of control systems.
The transformation process begins with the state-space representation, characterized by the state equation and the output equation. These equations are typically represented as:
The transformation process begins with the state-space representation, characterized by the state equation and the output equation. These equations are typically represented as:
314
Transfer Function to State Space
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State-space representation is a powerful tool for simulating physical systems on digital computers, necessitating the conversion of the transfer function into state-space form. Consider an nth-order linear differential equation with constant coefficients, like those encountered in an RLC circuit. The state variables are selected as the output and its n−1 derivatives. Differentiating these variables and substituting them back into the original equation produces the state equations.
In an...
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Linear Approximation in Time Domain
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Nonlinear systems often require sophisticated approaches for accurate modeling and analysis, with state-space representation being particularly effective. This method is especially useful for systems where variables and parameters vary with time or operating conditions, such as in a simple pendulum or a translational mechanical system with nonlinear springs.
For a simple pendulum with a mass evenly distributed along its length and the center of mass located at half the pendulum's length,...
For a simple pendulum with a mass evenly distributed along its length and the center of mass located at half the pendulum's length,...
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Linear time-invariant Systems
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A system is linear if it displays the characteristics of homogeneity and additivity, together termed the superposition property. This principle is fundamental in all linear systems. Linear time-invariant (LTI) systems include systems with linear elements and constant parameters.
The input-output behavior of an LTI system can be fully defined by its response to an impulsive excitation at its input. Once this impulse response is known, the system's reaction to any other input can be...
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Multi-input and Multi-variable systems
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Cruise control systems in cars are designed as multi-input systems to maintain a driver's desired speed while compensating for external disturbances such as changes in terrain. The block diagram for a cruise control system typically includes two main inputs: the desired speed set by the driver and any external disturbances, such as the incline of the road. By adjusting the engine throttle, the system maintains the vehicle's speed as close to the desired value as possible.
In the absence...
In the absence...
152


