在云模型和贝叶斯信念网络方法下,对油轮集装箱的货物泄漏污染的综合风险分析
Gizem Elidolu1, Sukru Ilke Sezer2, Emre Akyuz1
1Department of Maritime Transportation and Management Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Tuzla 34940, Istanbul, Türkiye.
Marine pollution bulletin
|June 3, 2025
概括
这项研究确定了石油和化工油轮货物泄漏的15个风险因素,强调门故障和软管问题至关重要. 调查结果提供了关于安全措施的见解,以尽量减少油轮运营期间的污染风险.
科学领域:
- 海洋工程 海洋工程是指海洋工程.
- 环境科学环境科学
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 石油和化学品油轮对于全球贸易至关重要,但由于潜在的货物泄漏,它们会带来环境风险.
- 输送管区是装载/卸载过程中泄漏的高风险区域,通常是由于设备故障或人为错误造成的.
研究的目的:
- 评估油轮机组区内货物泄漏造成的污染风险.
- 识别和分析导致此类事件的关键风险因素.
主要方法:
- 利用云模型 (CM) 来处理专家判断的不确定性.
- 使用贝叶斯信念网络 (BBN) 来确定风险因素之间的因果关系.
- 确定并分析了货物泄漏的15个不同的风险因素.
主要成果:
- 门故障,软管变形,标尺安装不正确,软管支不足,以及船只位置的变化被确定为泄漏的关键因素.
- 敏感性分析证实了这些因素对泄漏事件的重大影响.
结论:
- 该研究提供了关于减轻与油轮集装箱运营相关的污染风险的宝贵见解.
- 提出了加强安全措施的建议,以尽量减少货物泄漏对环境的影响.
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