气候变化对作物产量的负面影响被低估了
Rogério de S Nóia Júnior1, Senthold Asseng2, Christoph Müller3
1LEPSE, Univ Montpellier, INRAE, Institut Agro Montpellier, Montpellier, France.
Trends in plant science
|June 3, 2025
概括
目前的作物模型难以模拟极端天气事件,可能低估了未来气候变化对作物产量的影响. 提高这些模型对于全球粮食安全至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 计算科学 计算科学
背景情况:
- 农作物模拟模型是预测气候变化对农业生产力影响的重要工具.
- 现有的模型在准确模拟极端天气事件及其对作物的不利影响方面存在局限性.
研究的目的:
- 审查当前的作物模拟模型,并评估它们代表不利气候影响的能力.
- 发现作物建模中有关极端天气事件的缺陷.
主要方法:
- 对现有的作物模拟模型进行了系统审查.
- 模型的评估是基于它们模拟的气候影响机制,特别是与极端天气有关的气候影响机制.
主要成果:
- 大多数当前的作物模型都不充分模拟了不利气候影响的关键机制,包括大雨和水淹没.
- 这种模拟缺陷表明模型倾向于低估不断升级的极端天气对作物产量的真正影响.
结论:
- 目前的作物模拟模型可能会低估气候变化导致的未来产量减少,特别是随着极端天气频率和严重程度的增加.
- 迫切需要改进作物建模,以准确预测作物产量,并加强全球粮食系统对极端天气事件的抵御力.
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