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胃瘤风险分层预测模型的开发和验证,用于查食道胃管腺透镜

Seokho Myeong¹, Kyung-Han Song¹, Donghoon Kang¹

¹Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul St. Mary's Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea.

|June 5, 2025

概括

在查食道胃二透镜 (EGD) 之前,开发胃瘤风险的预测模型至关重要. 该研究创建了AUC约为0.8的模型,以更好地分层风险.

科学领域:

胃肠病学胃肠病学
在瘤学瘤学.
医疗信息学医疗信息学

背景情况:

在查食道胃二透镜 (EGD) 之前,对胃瘤风险的患者进行分层分层是一个重大的临床挑战.
准确的风险评估对于优化查内镜分配和早期发现胃癌前疾病至关重要.

研究的目的:

在查环境中开发和验证用于评估胃瘤风险的预测模型.
为了确定导致胃形和癌症的关键风险因素.

主要方法:

一项回顾性横截面研究,涉及2009年至2019年接受EGD的21586名患者.
使用后勤回归分析来识别风险因素,并开发基于分数的预测模型.
用曲线下的面积 (AUC) 和Hosmer-Lemeshow适合性测试来评估模型性能,并通过引导和验证队列进行内部验证.

主要成果:

开发了四种预测模型,其中第4模型包括年龄,性别,素比率,抗Helicobacter pylori抗体,吸烟,BMI,酒精使用和家族史,在衍生队列中显示最高的AUC (0.827).
模型2在风险评分分配后实现了最高的AUC (0.788). 观察到的低,中,高风险群体的患病率分别为0.24%,1.05%和4.08%.
内部验证显示了强的性能,Model 3的AUC为0.802,所有模型都通过了Hosmer-Lemeshow测试.

结论:

开发的预测模型显示,胃瘤风险分层的AUC约为0.8,非常有希望.
虽然有效,但建议通过额外的分层因素进一步细化,以提高预选设置中的诊断性能.
这些模型可以帮助临床医生识别高风险个体进行胃癌查.

关键词:

临床决策支持临床决策支持临床预测规则是临床预测规则.胃肠道内镜检查是指胃肠道内镜检查.风险分层是指风险的分层.胃的新生瘤胃的新生瘤

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