低温对沃伊沃迪纳死亡率的影响 (2000-2020年):对寒冷时期的定量分析
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1Institute of Social Sciences, Demographic Research Centre, Belgrade, Serbia.
International journal of biometeorology
|June 5, 2025
概括
塞尔维亚沃伊沃迪纳的寒冷天气显著增加了死亡率. 这项研究强调了寒冷后延迟死亡率的增加,这表明公共卫生警告的温度值为-7°C.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物气象学生物气象学
背景情况:
- 之前在沃伊沃迪纳 (Vojvodina) 的研究主要集中在与热相关的死亡率上.
- 这项研究解决了有关寒冷天气对该地区死亡率的定量影响的知识差距.
研究的目的:
- 调查低温,寒冷和塞尔维亚沃伊沃迪纳死亡率之间的关联 (2000-2020年).
- 为了确定与死亡率增加相关的温度值和时间滞后.
- 为了比较非线性统计模型与传统回归的有效性,用于与感冒相关的死亡率分析.
主要方法:
- 利用了塞尔维亚沃伊沃迪纳 (2000-2020年) 的每日死亡率和温度数据.
- 定义的寒冷天 (平均温度<0°C) 和寒冷时期 (连续≥3天,最低温度≤-10°C).
- 采用非线性统计模型 (LOESS,二次回归) 和Poisson回归来分析对寒冷暴露的死亡率反应.
主要成果:
- 在寒冷的日子和寒冷时期观察到死亡率的统计显著增加.
- 非线性模型确定了 -3.5°C和 -7°C时死亡率增加的临界温度值.
- 死亡率在-13°C以下达到顶峰,死亡率显著滞后2-9天,特别是在寒冷期间.
结论:
- 寒冷的天气,特别是寒冷时期,在沃伊沃迪纳带来了严重的死亡风险.
- 非线性模型提供了比Poisson回归更准确的评估与寒冷相关的死亡率动态.
- 建议将-7°C的值作为该地区寒冷天气预警系统的可靠指标.
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