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太阳辐射修饰对加勒比地区太阳能和风能资源和发电的影响
Matthew St Michael Williams1, Leonardo A Clarke1, Randy Koon Koon2
1Climate Studies Group Mona (CSGM), Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica.
PloS one
|June 5, 2025
概括
太阳辐射修饰 (SRM) 可能会减少太阳能发电,但增加加勒比海的风力发电. 加勒比国家应该参与全球SRM讨论,影响他们的可再生能源未来.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 可再生能源系统可再生能源系统
- 地质工程技术的技术.
背景情况:
- 全球缓解努力进展缓慢,人们对太阳辐射修饰 (SRM) 的兴趣日益增加,以实现快速冷却.
- 加勒比国家正在投资可变可再生能源 (VRE),以减少对化石燃料的依赖.
- SRM 部署可能会影响 VRE 资源,对该地区的能源转型造成担忧.
研究的目的:
- 评估SRM场景对加勒比地区太阳能光伏 (PV) 和风能发电的潜在影响.
- 在不同的场景中比较SRM效应,包括平流层气溶注射 (G4) 和海洋云亮化 (G4cdnc,G4seasalt).
- 为加勒比能源部门参与全球SRM讨论提供信息.
主要方法:
- 从HadGEM2-ES全球气候模型中提取的太阳辐射和风速数据,根据各种SRM场景 (G4,G4cdnc,G4seasalt) 和RCP4.5.5.
- 分析了基于预计全球温度上升的两个未来时期的数据 ([公式:见文本]和[公式:见文本]高于工业化前水平).
- 根据"SRM与非SRM世界"为加勒比地区计算的太阳能光伏和风电场发电量的变化.
主要成果:
- 与RCP4.5相比,在SRM下太阳辐射和光伏发电总体上下降,模型平均值的变化很小.
- 在SRM下,风力发电总体上增加了,有显著的季节性和技术依赖的变化.
- 海洋云亮化场景 (G4cdnc,G4SeaSalt) 显示风力发电的空间增加比平流层气溶注射 (G4) 更一致.
结论:
- 对于加勒比地区的VRE来说,SRM的部署呈现出一个复杂的形象,太阳能发电的潜在减少和风能发电的增加.
- 调查结果强调了加勒比能源部门需要积极参与关于SRM的全球治理讨论.
- 了解SRM对VRE的影响对于该地区的可持续能源发展和气候减缓目标至关重要.
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