跨境河流水质评估:巴基斯坦喀布尔河流盆地的案例研究
Kashif Hussain1, Muhammad Shahid Iqbal1, Sarfraz Munir1
1International Water Management Institute, 12 Km Multan Road, Thokar Niaz Baig, Lahore, 53700, Pakistan.
概括
巴基斯坦喀布尔河流域的大肠杆菌 (E. coli) 微生物污染是一个主要的健康风险. 改善卫生和废水处理可以显著降低大肠杆菌水平,而不充分的措施将使污染恶化.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 淡水的微生物污染是发展中国家的一个关键公共卫生问题.
- 大肠杆菌 (E. coli) 是水资源中便污染的一个关键指标.
研究的目的:
- 评估喀布尔河流盆地 (KRB) 的大肠杆菌度和影响因素.
- 模拟气候变化和社会经济因素对大肠杆菌水平的影响.
- 评估各种管理方案在减少大肠杆菌污染方面的有效性.
主要方法:
- 使用土壤和水资源评估工具 (SWAT) 模型进行模拟.
- 使用流量和大肠杆菌度数据对模型进行校准和验证.
- 分析了不同气候变化和管理情景下的大肠杆菌度 (P1,P2,Aa,Ab,Ac).
主要成果:
- 在洪水事件中观察到较高的大肠杆菌度.
- 场景-P1 (改善卫生设施) 显示,到2050年,大肠杆菌的数量将减少70%.
- 先进的卫生和便处理 (Aa,Ab,Ac) 可将大肠杆菌降低高达96%.
- 卫生设施不足 (情景-P2) 导致到2050年增加158%,到2100年增加201%.
结论:
- 大肠杆菌度受到气候变化和社会经济因素的重大影响.
- 改善环境卫生,废水处理和便管理对于在KRB减少大肠杆菌至关重要.
- 对于水处理和卫生基础设施的紧急干预是必要的,以减轻公共卫生风险.
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