优化基于生命周期成本分析和实际选择的森林部门业绩.
Gustavo Alves de Melo1, Thuliany Fernandes Araújo Paes2, Jaqueline Severino da Costa2
1Federal University of Lavras, Department of Agroindustrial Management, P.O. Box 3037, Lavras 37200-000, MG, Brazil.
The Science of the total environment
|June 6, 2025
概括
这项研究证实白树的生产在经济上是可行的,尤其是在改革/花或改革/调节方法. 化学受精和手动防是最具成本效益的,突出了对决策的概率分析.
科学领域:
- 林业经济学 林业经济学
- 农业成本分析 农业成本分析
背景情况:
- 树生产是巴西的一个重要产业.
- 准确的成本评估对于可持续的林业运作至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估树生产的生命周期成本.
- 用先进的分析方法评估经济可行性.
- 确定关键的成本驱动因素和成本降低策略.
主要方法:
- 经济可行性分析 (EFA)
- 蒙特卡洛模拟 (MCS) 用于不确定性分析.
- 实际选择分析 (ROA) 对于战略灵活性
主要成果:
- 树生产项目证实经济可行.
- 改革/Coppice和改革/Conduction情景带来了最高的回报.
- 木材价格和生产量是主要的经济影响因素.
- 化学化肥和手动杀被确定为最具成本效益的做法.
结论:
- 概率学方法可以增强林业成本分析和决策.
- 战略场景规划 (改革/Coppice,改革/Conduction) 优化了回报.
- 有针对性的成本降低措施 (施肥,害虫防治) 提高了利能力.
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