通过使用大型语言模型推进实时传染病预测
Hongru Du1,2, Yang Zhao1,2, Jianan Zhao3,4
1Center for Systems Science and Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Nature computational science
|June 6, 2025
概括
流行病LLM使用人工智能预测疾病的传播,通过分析复杂的数据,如公共卫生政策和基因组监测. 这种新的方法改善了实时爆发预测.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 人工智能的人工智能
- 计算生物学 计算生物学
背景情况:
- 由于多模式变量,公共政策和人类行为,预测短期疾病传播是复杂的.
- 现有的模型很难有效地整合多样化的实时数据.
研究的目的:
- 介绍PandemicLLM,一个使用多模式大语言模型 (LLM) 进行实时疾病传播预测的框架.
- 重构疾病传播预测作为一个文本推理问题,以纳入非数字数据.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个人工智能-人类合作提示设计和时间序列表示学习来编码LLMs的多模式数据.
- 利用文本公共卫生政策,基因组监测和流行病学时间序列数据.
- 使用COVID-19数据,在美国所有50个州应用和测试了该模型19个月.
主要成果:
- 流行病LLM成功地结合了与流行病相关的异质数据格式.
- 与现有的疾病传播预测模型相比,已证明的性能优势.
- 通过将疾病传播视为文本推理问题来实现实时预测.
结论:
- 流行病LLM为在疾病爆发预测中整合各种数据类型提供了一个新的框架.
- 这种方法有望提高公共卫生预测的准确性和及时性.
- 为人工智能驱动的复杂,现实世界的流行病学挑战的分析开辟了新的途径.
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