使用时间序列分析预测印度Dakshina Kannada,Karnataka的登革热发病率
Navya Mohana1, Mackwin Kenwood Dmello1, Suresha Kharvi2
1Department of Public Health, Nitte Institute of Allied Health Sciences (NIAHS), NITTE University (Deemed to be University), Mangaluru, Karnataka, India.
Journal of vector borne diseases
|June 9, 2025
概括
印度的登革热病例正在增加,原因是城市化和气候. 这项研究预测印度Dakshina Kannada地区登革热发病率将增加,强调需要有针对性的公共卫生干预和气候监测.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 登革热在印度是一个重大的公共卫生挑战,由快速城市化加剧.
- 了解登革热传播动态对于有效的控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析Dakshina Kannada地区登革热传播的时间空间模式.
- 研究气候对登革热发病率的影响.
- 预测未来的登革热趋势从2024年到2026年.
主要方法:
- 来自Dakshina Kannada的288个地点的回顾性数据分析 (2019-2024年).
- 使用SaTScan和QGIS进行时空集群识别.
- 气候因素分析的多变量线性回归.
- 自动回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 模型用于预测.
主要成果:
- 有1836例登革热病例被记录在案.
- 确定了登革热的显著时空集群,其中一个主要集群从2022年5月到2024年4月.
- 降雨量和温度与登革热发病率有显著的相关性.
- 阿里马模型预测登革热病例的持续上升趋势,受季节性模式的影响.
结论:
- 在Dakshina Kannada的登革热传播受到气候因素 (如温度,降雨量和湿度) 的强烈影响.
- 预测模型预测登革热病例的增加,需要在确定的热点地区进行有针对性的公共卫生干预.
- 基于气候的持续监测对于及时有效的登革热控制至关重要.
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