基于半层次控制的中国物流行业天然气消费的预测
1School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang University of Science and Technology, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
PloS one
|June 10, 2025
概括
由于支持性政策和成本降低,中国的物流行业正在转向天然气. 这项研究开发了一个半层次的控制框架,并结合了预测方法,以准确预测这种转变.
科学领域:
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
- 物流和供应链管理的物流和供应链管理.
- 环境政策 环境政策
背景情况:
- 中国的物流业传统上严重依赖汽油和柴油.
- 在这个行业中,越来越多的趋势是将天然气取代传统燃料.
- 了解驱动因素和预测消费对于政策和规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析推动中国物流部门天然气替代石油的机制.
- 开发和评估该行业天然气消耗的预测方法.
- 提出一个研究框架,使用半层次控制来改善预测.
主要方法:
- 对天然气采用驱动机制的分析.
- 灰色预测,回归趋势和巴斯模型的应用.
- 基于半层次控制的组合预测方法的开发.
- 使用反向反机制解决联合预测系数的问题.
主要成果:
- 政策支持和较低的运营成本是天然气采用的主要驱动因素.
- 预测模型为各种市场条件下的消费趋势提供了洞察力.
- 与单个模型相比,联合预测方法显示出更高的准确性和稳定性.
- 单个模型误差在2.9%至5.94%之间,而组合方法达到2.9%-3.1%.
结论:
- 中国的物流部门可能会减少对汽油和柴油的依赖.
- 预测天然气消耗对于政府规划和市场环境评估至关重要.
- 拟议的半层次控制框架和联合预测方法显著提高了对物流中的天然气需求的预测准确性和稳定性.
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