战争动态的实证研究和模型:愿意冒风险
Boris Podobnik1,2,3,4, Luka Medvidovic5, Dorian Wild2
1Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Rijeka, 51000 Rijeka, Croatia, EU.
Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
|June 11, 2025
概括
公众愿意接受伤亡和核战争的风险显著影响冲突的结果,挑战传统的经济模式. 一项全球调查显示,如果这意味着要摧毁敌人,他们会对自己国家的损失有惊人的容忍度.
科学领域:
- 冲突研究 冲突研究
- 国际关系 国际关系
- 游戏理论的游戏理论.
背景情况:
- 传统的经济模型,如国内生产总值 (GDP),不足以预测战争的结果.
- 历史上的例外,比如阿富汗的冲突,突出了超越经济力量的因素的必要性.
- 士兵的牺牲意愿和一个国家的核战争风险承受能力是战争结果的不充分探索的决定因素.
研究的目的:
- 量化公众对伤亡的容忍度,与敌人的损失相比.
- 引入一种新的指标,即风险准备比率,用于评估核战争发动倾向.
- 模拟失败主义的传播以及援助对核升级动态的影响.
主要方法:
- 全球调查以评估不同敌方损失的可接受伤亡门.
- 愿意承担风险比率的发展 (敌人的GDP破坏/自己的GDP破坏).
- 勇敢的网络建模,失败主义的传染,以及代理战争援助对核灾难概率的影响.
主要成果:
- 受访者接受的平均23% (中位数10%) 自己的伤亡为100%的敌人破坏.
- 愿意承担风险的比率为比较核大国发动核战争的倾向提供了一个框架.
- 在代理战争中增加援助可以提高核灾难的概率,影响核大国的继续支持的决定.
结论:
- 公众对伤亡的容忍和愿意冒核战争的风险是冲突中的关键因素,但往往被忽视.
- 愿意承担风险的比率为核威和升级动态提供了新的视角.
- 了解这些心理和风险评估因素对于防止代理冲突中核灾难至关重要.
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