监管命令和公众恐惧如何影响COVID-19下的车辆流动性:从城市整体车辆的全球视角来看,使用多源数据的全球视角
Li Tang1,2, Chuanli Tang2, Hao Luo2
1Vehicle Measurement, Control and Safety Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Xihua University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
PloS one
|June 11, 2025
概括
在全国爆发期间,COVID-19大流行导致城市车辆旅行需求减少了29.66%. 这一损失是由公众恐惧和政府控制政策之间的相互作用驱动的,确认的病例显示出延迟的影响.
科学领域:
- 运输科学 运输科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- COVID-19 显著影响了全球交通,但城市车辆旅行需求变化仍未得到充分探索.
- 现有的研究主要集中在公共交通和共享流动性,忽视了整体车辆使用.
- 了解个人车辆旅行的转变对于流行病后的恢复和城市流动性规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析COVID-19对城市车辆流动性的影响的大小,持续时间和驱动因素.
- 量化疫情所造成的车辆旅行需求减少.
- 调查监管措施,公众看法和旅行行为之间的相互作用.
主要方法:
- 利用先知时间序列模型来预测大流行前的城市车辆流动性.
- 通过将预测值与实际观察数据进行比较,计算出移动性损失.
- 采用多重线性回归来确定影响旅行需求减少的关键因素,包括政策严格性和公众恐惧.
- 分析了来自不同来源的大规模数据集,超过40亿个数据点.
主要成果:
- 在全国爆发期间,城市车辆流动量明显下降了29.66%.
- 全国确诊的COVID-19病例对移动性丧失产生了积极的,滞后的效果,延迟了大约七天.
- 监管命令的严格性和公众恐惧之间的相互作用被确定为减少机动旅行需求的主要驱动因素.
结论:
- 由于COVID-19大流行,城市车辆旅行需求大幅减少,主要是由于风险感知和控制政策的结合.
- 这些发现突出了公共卫生危机,政府干预和个人移动选择之间的复杂关系.
- 这项研究为决策者在未来的流行病或类似的大规模破坏期间解决交通挑战提供了宝贵的见解.
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