溢出率不是宿主跳跃风险的预测指标,但溢出新奇性是
bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology
|June 12, 2025
概括
病原体的新奇性,而不是溢出率,预测了宿主跳跃. 新型病原体更有可能跳到新的宿主,提供了一种新的方法来识别疾病风险.
科学领域:
- 生态学和进化生物学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 疾病动态 疾病动态
背景情况:
- 宿主跳跃,病原体传播到新的宿主,对全球健康构成重大威胁.
- 预测成功的宿主跳跃的风险仍然是公共卫生和兽医的挑战.
- 目前的假设将更高的溢出率与增加的宿主跳跃风险联系在一起,但缺乏证据.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个定量框架来预测宿主跳跃风险.
- 为了评估溢出率与病原体新奇性对宿主跳跃的预测值.
- 确定驱动新宿主感染性疾病出现风险的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 应用贝叶斯框架来建模宿主跳跃风险.
- 利用过去的溢出结果来预测未来的宿主跳跃事件.
- 将溢出率与病原体新奇性的预测能力进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 发现溢出率不能预测宿主跳跃风险.
- 具有近期溢出历史的病原体 (新病原体) 的风险大大高于具有长期历史的病原体.
- 病原体的新奇性是宿主跳跃风险的更强的预测因素,而不是溢出率.
结论:
- 病原体溢出率并不能可靠地表明宿主跳跃的风险.
- 病原体的新奇性是评估传染病出现潜力的关键因素.
- 这一发现可以改善对宿主跳跃的高风险情景的识别,有利于公共卫生和经济.
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