COVID-19财政复苏计划是否会加速或延缓气候变化方面的进展?
Cameron Hepburn1, Brian O'Callaghan1, Nicholas Stern2
1Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford.
概括
COVID-19恢复基金可以推动气候目标. 专家们确定了五个关键政策,包括清洁基础设施和研发,为经济和环境带来好处. 农村支持对低收入国家至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 气候变化政策 气候变化政策
- 财政复苏策略 财政复苏策略
背景情况:
- 随着COVID-19的流行,气候变化减缓工作面临重大挑战和机遇.
- 危机后的经济复苏方案有可能加强或取代目前依赖化石燃料的经济模式.
研究的目的:
- 评估各种财政复苏战略在平衡经济刺激与气候目标方面的有效性.
- 为了确定最佳的政策原型,以促进疫情后的经济复苏,同时促进气候行动.
主要方法:
- 调查了来自G20国家的231名经济专家,包括央行和财政部官员.
- 根据速度,经济乘数,气候影响和整体可取性评估了25个财政复苏原型.
- 分析了COVID-19对温室气体排放的短期影响和潜在的中期行为转变.
主要成果:
- 五项政策显示出经济乘数和气候影响的巨大潜力:清洁的物理基础设施,建筑效率改造,教育和培训投资,自然资本投资以及清洁的研发.
- 对于低收入和中等收入国家 (LMICs),农村支持支出表现特别有价值,而清洁的研发不那么重要.
- 该研究考虑了大流行对排放的直接影响,并预测了人类和机构行为的长期变化.
结论:
- 财政复苏计划提供了一个关键的机会,使经济振兴与气候变化减缓目标保持一致.
- 优先投资于清洁基础设施,能源效率,人力资本,自然资源和创新,可以带来巨大的经济和环境共同利益.
- 政策建议必须根据特定的国家和经济背景,特别是对于LMICs来定制,以最大限度地提高效率.
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