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COVID-19冲击和股权短缺:来自意大利的强有力的证据
Elena Carletti1, Tommaso Oliviero2, Marco Pagano3
1Bocconi University, Baffi Carefin Centre, IGIER, and CEPR.
概括
由于COVID-19的封锁,意大利17%的公司的利下降了10%的GDP,并陷入了财务困境. 制造业和批发贸易的中小企业受到经济衰退的影响最大.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 企业管理 企业管理
- 金融风险分析 金融风险分析
背景情况:
- 由于COVID-19的流行,需要采取前所未有的公共卫生干预措施,包括经济封锁.
- 这些封锁严重扰乱了全球和国家经济,影响了商业运营和金融稳定.
- 了解对企业的具体财务影响对于经济复苏战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测COVID-19封锁对公司利和股权的影响.
- 为了确定意大利企业因封锁而面临的财务困境的程度.
- 分析那些最容易遭遇金融危机的公司的特点.
主要方法:
- 使用了80972家意大利企业的代表性样本.
- 雇佣了预测模型来估计利下降和股权缺口.
- 分析了包括规模,杆,部门和所有权结构在内的企业级数据.
主要成果:
- 预计3个月的封锁将导致总年利下降约为GDP的10%.
- 17%的样本公司,占员工的8.8%,面临着财务困境.
- 在中小企业 (SMEs),高杆企业以及制造业和批发贸易部门的企业中,困境更为普遍.
结论:
- COVID-19封锁对企业的财务健康构成重大威胁,特别是对中小企业来说.
- 部门和金融结构的脆弱性加剧了公司陷入困境的风险.
- 政策干预应考虑为脆弱的企业和部门提供有针对性的支持,以减轻长期的经济损害.
关键词:
G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G02 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G02 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01 G01G32 G32 G32 是一个字母.在G3333中使用.相关概念视频
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