火灾烟雾提高了碳质PM2.5的度和死亡负担在相邻的美国和加拿大南部
Zhihao Jin1, Gonzalo A Ferrada2,3, Danlu Zhang4
1Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia 30322, United States.
Environmental science & technology
|June 12, 2025
概括
野火烟雾严重影响空气质量和健康,每年造成数千人死亡. 这项研究量化了烟雾中微粒颗粒物 (PM2.5) 对健康的影响,强调了制定政策的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 大气化学 大气化学
背景情况:
- 来自野火烟雾的细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 对健康构成风险,但基于成分的具体影响尚不清楚.
- 了解来自烟雾的PM2.5的空间和时间分布对于公共卫生评估至关重要.
- 之前的研究缺乏来自烟雾的碳质PM2.5 (有机碳和元素碳) 的高分辨率数据.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个模型,用于估计连续的美国 (CONUS) 和加拿大南部 (SC) 的烟雾衍生的碳状PM2.5的每日度.
- 评估增加野火烟雾对空气质量和人口暴露的影响.
- 量化与长期暴露于火灾烟雾PM2.5.5的健康影响和经济成本.
主要方法:
- 利用基于化学运输模型的三级框架,以1x1公里分辨率估计每日PM2.5度.
- 采用十倍交叉验证来评估在烟雾和烟雾期间对有机碳 (OC) 和元素碳 (EC) 的模型性能.
- 分析了来自CONUS和SC的2002年至2019年的数据,以评估烟雾频率,强度和人口暴露的趋势.
主要成果:
- 该模型表现出强大的性能,OC和EC的每日R2值高达0.80,在月度尺度上超过0.90.
- 增加的野火烟雾抵消了大约三分之一的空气质量改善,加剧了碳质PM2.5度,特别是在西部CONUS和加拿大西南部.
- 据估计,分别在CONUS和SC的每年7455和259例非意外死亡与火灾烟雾PM2.5有关,并造成了显著的货币化损失.
结论:
- 长期暴露于来自野火烟雾的碳质PM2.5,大大导致过早死亡和经济损失.
- 野火季节正在延长,增加了人口暴露率,并加剧了空气质量问题.
- 调查结果强调,迫切需要制定政策来应对火灾烟雾影响和未来的健康负担,东南CONUS地区由于规定的火灾造成高影响.
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