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进口疟疾在佛得角 (2010-2024):对消除后稳定的风险

Adilson José DePina¹, Giovanni Leite Lima², António Lima Moreira³

¹Programa Eliminação do Paludismo, CCS-SIDA, Ministério da Saúde, Praia, Cabo Verde.

PLOS global public health

|June 12, 2025

概括

佛得角的进口疟疾病例从2020年到2024年大幅增加,对该国无疟疾地位构成风险. 持续的监测和有针对性的干预措施对于防止重新引入和维持消除至关重要.

科学领域:

公共卫生公共卫生
传染病流行病学传染病流行病学
热带医学热带医学

背景情况:

佛得角获得了世界卫生组织 (WHO) 的官方无疟疾认证.
持续的公共卫生干预和战略性疟疾消除努力是认证的关键.
进口疟疾病例对保持无疟疾地位构成持续威胁.

研究的目的:

分析从2010年到2024年在佛得角进口的疟疾病例.
描述进口病例的位置,起源,流行病学趋势和空间分布.
为决策提供证据,以防止疾病在认证后重新引入.

主要方法:

生态时间序列方法分析确认的进口疟疾病例 (2010-2024年).
与国家疟疾控制计划和综合监测和应对服务合作收集的数据.
时间趋势的连接点回归分析,预测的霍尔特-温特斯模型和空间数据可视化.

主要成果:

在2010年至2024年期间,共报告了383例进口疟疾病例.
从2020年到2024年观察到病例的显著增加趋势 (APC: +25.75%).
预测估计2025-2026年每年约有80例进口病例;大多数病例发生在圣地亚哥岛,主要来自几内亚比绍,安哥拉,塞内加尔和尼日利亚.

结论:

尽管佛得角拥有无疟疾的地位,但疟疾重新引入的风险仍然存在.
持续监测,早期诊断,及时治疗和战略干预是必不可少的.
持续消除需要强有力的政策,领导和资源,以有效管理进口病例.

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