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在基于人口的队列研究中确定儿童中期肥胖的主要预测因素:证据综合和预测建模研究
Yuchan Mou1,2, Susana Santos2,3,4, Macarena Lara1
1Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
概括
确定儿童肥胖的主要预测因素至关重要. 父母怀孕前的BMI,生命早期的体重和孩子的食欲特征显著影响儿童中期的身体质量指数 (BMI).
科学领域:
- 儿科医生和公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 儿童肥胖研究儿童肥胖研究
背景情况:
- 儿童超重和肥胖是严重的公共卫生问题,有许多已确定的预测因素.
- 缺乏对这些多学科预测因素相对重要性的定量概述和理解.
- 以前的研究还没有完全阐明各种因素对儿童肥胖的共同贡献.
研究的目的:
- 提供儿童体重指数 (BMI) 的多学科预测指标的定量概述.
- 确定关键预测因素,并建立儿童超重和肥胖的预测模型.
- 确定预测因素对儿童BMI的相对重要性和集体贡献.
主要方法:
- 综合了来自Generation R研究中的93项研究的证据,这是一个基于人口的潜在队列.
- 在预先概念和儿童时期量化审查了210个预测因素,选择了59个候选预测因素.
- 利用模型搜索算法来识别32个关键预测因素并构建预测模型.
主要成果:
- 父母怀孕前的BMI (母亲和父亲),生命早期的体重 (zBMI在2岁时) 和食物反应与儿童中期的BMI有关.
- 腹反应与儿童中期的BMI有负相关性.
- 关键预测因素共同占BMI变异的49.2%,在10岁时超重/肥胖的几率为33.7%.
结论:
- 建议针对怀孕前父母的BMI,早期肥胖反弹和幼儿时期食欲管理的多式干预措施.
- 这些干预措施可能是最有效的在儿童时期保持健康的体重.
- 了解孕前,产前和早期儿童因素的相互作用对于预防肥胖至关重要.
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