绿色能源和钢铁进口减少了欧洲净零基础设施需求
Fabian Neumann1, Johannes Hampp2, Tom Brown3
1Department of Digital Transformation in Energy Systems, Institute of Energy Technology, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany. f.neumann@tu-berlin.de.
进口可再生能源到欧洲可以降低成本和土地使用. 该研究表明,进口甲醇,钢铁和气是首选的,国内生产有助于可再生能源的整合.
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 可再生能源经济学可再生能源经济学
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
背景情况:
- 欧洲在能源安全和脱碳方面面临着挑战.
- 可再生能源进口提供潜在的好处,如降低成本和减少土地使用.
- 关于进口量,成本,能源载体和基础设施影响存在不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 探索欧洲的净零排放场景,考虑进口可再生能源.
- 分析不同进口量,成本和能源载体 (电力,,氨,甲醇,钢铁) 的影响.
- 评估进口策略与国内能源系统需求之间的权衡.
主要方法:
- 全球能源供应链模型与欧洲能源系统模型的整合.
- 在不同的进口条件下模拟净零排放场景.
- 分析系统成本的降低,基础设施需求,以及国内生产的作用.
主要成果:
- 系统成本降低1%-10%是可以实现的,进口成本变化为±20%.
- 随着进口量增加,观测到回报率下降;甲醇,钢铁和气进口是首选的.
- 国内电力到X的生产有利于整合可变可再生能源和利用当地资源.
结论:
- 协调进口战略至关重要,必须与基础设施政策保持一致.
- 在决定可再生能源进口的过程中,非成本因素的作用很大.
- 进口与国内生产的平衡优化了欧洲能源系统的弹性和脱碳.
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