受到Ips typographus影响的杉林的生态,花和植被特征以及未来的前景:来自南部阿尔卑斯山的洞察
Luca Giupponi1,2, Riccardo Panza1, Davide Pedrali1
1Centre of Applied Studies for the Sustainable Management and Protection of Mountain Areas-C.R.C. Ge.S.Di.Mont., University of Milan, Via Morino 8, 25048 Edolo, Italy.
Plants (Basel, Switzerland)
|June 13, 2025
概括
南阿尔卑斯山的杉林越来越受到树皮甲虫疫情的影响. 温暖的冬季和高太阳辐射增加了易感性,到2080年,超过58%的森林面临风险.
科学领域:
- 森林生态 森林生态
- 昆虫学 昆虫学是一门学科.
- 气候变化影响气候变化的影响.
背景情况:
- 树皮甲虫 (Ips typographus) 爆发严重影响南部阿尔卑斯山的松树 (Picea abies) 森林.
- 这些疫情对生态的影响尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 分析受皮虫影响的森林的分布,生态和植物植物特征.
- 开发一个预测模型,用于森林易受未来的树皮甲虫攻击.
主要方法:
- 对受影响地区森林特征的现场分析.
- 基于生物气候因素预测易感性的MaxEnt建模.
主要成果:
- 受影响的森林低于1600米,其中85%位于高太阳辐射区域 (>3500MJ m-2).
- 预测模型 (AUC=0.91) 突出显示了冬季干燥区平均温度 (-2.5至2.5°C) 是关键因素.
- 预计到2080年,超过58%的现有杉林将受到影响.
- 疫情爆发后,预计将有更多的热友和独特的森林社区.
结论:
- 气候变化,特别是冬季变暖,在阿尔卑斯山南部的杉林中增加了树皮甲虫的易感性.
- 森林管理策略必须考虑森林社区组成的预测变化和增加害虫风险.
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