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汉福德整治经济学:成本升级假设

Geoffrey Rothwell¹

¹Stanford University, United States (retired); Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, France (retired).

Journal of environmental management

|June 14, 2025

概括

汉福德汉福德是什么意思

科学领域:

环境修复环境修复
造价工程成本工程造价工程
项目管理项目管理

背景情况:

美国能源部 (DOE) 在汉福德的废物处理厂 (WTP) 经历了显著的成本上升.
三方协议导致了持续的范围变化,使成本跟踪复杂化.
目前对汉福德清理的成本估计在3640亿美元至589亿美元之间.

研究的目的:

为了检查汉福德成本升级约为名义上2~4%的假设.
为汉福德成本估计者推适当的实际升级率.
分析实际升级率超过实际利率对贴现率的影响.

主要方法:

对汉福德废物处理厂的历史成本数据的分析.
检查名义升级率与实际项目成本之间的关系.
评估不同实际升级率对当前价值成本估计的影响.

主要成果:

该研究调查了汉福德市名义成本升级率为2-4%的假设.
它强调了由于范围的变化,难以确定成本增加的来源.
该论文讨论了负贴现率的可能性,如果实际升级超过实际利率.

结论:

建议汉福德成本估计器的实际升级率至少为4%.
建议使用管理和预算办公室的实际折扣率.
负的折扣率可能表明计划成本的当前价值比最初估计的更高.

关键词:

取消使用取消使用清除污染的方法升级升级的升级情况危险废物危险废物放射性废物是一种放射性废物.

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