消费的增长是否发生在最需要它的地方? 对当前的能源和物质趋势进行实证分析
Joel Millward-Hopkins1, Jason Hickel2, Suryadeepto Nag1
1Institute of Geography and Sustainability, Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, SwitZerland.
The Lancet. Planetary health
|June 14, 2025
概括
全球能源和物质使用不平等,许多国家缺乏满足基本需求的资源. 目前的增长趋势阻碍了实现公平福祉和可持续性的进展,迫切需要重新分配.
科学领域:
- 环境科学与可持续发展
- 社会经济分析 社会经济分析
- 行星边界研究研究研究行星边界研究
背景情况:
- 全球能源和物质消费量正在增加,威胁着行星的边界.
- 显著的不平等仍然存在,阻止数十亿人满足基本需求.
- 之前的研究估计了人类福祉的最低资源需求,但缺乏对消费趋势的洞察力.
研究的目的:
- 评估能源和物质短缺的国家是否正在将消费量提高到足够的水平.
- 为了确定是否有过剩消费的国家正在将其减少到可持续水平.
- 分析国家能源和物质足迹与体面的生活标准 (DLS) 要求相比.
主要方法:
- 将国家能源和材料足迹与DLS估计进行了比较.
- 能源和物质短缺与余的量化国家.
- 根据当前的增长率,对DLS的进展进行评估.
- 根据当前的增长率,在缺口国家达到DLS的计算时间.
主要成果:
- 世界消耗的能源和材料是全球DLS所需的2.5倍.
- 50%的国家面临能源短缺,46%国家面临物质短缺.
- 大多数缺口国家的增长速度太慢,无法在2050年达到DLS;一些国家将在2100年持续存在缺口.
- 余国家的增长速度是短缺国家的4倍,从而增加了生态压力.
结论:
- 世界并没有朝着一个公正和生态的未来前进.
- 能源和物质增长集中在非基本领域,而所需的增长不足.
- 在国家内部和国家之间实质性地重新分配资源对于实现DLS和巴黎协定目标至关重要.
- 目前全球北方和南方之间的融合率是不够的,预计在100年内实现公平.
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