在美国的Omicron之前发生的COVID-19感染事件
Rachel Lobay1, Ajitesh Srivastava2, Ryan J Tibshirani3
1Department of Statistics, The University of British Columbia, Earth Sciences Building, 2207 Main Mall, Room 3182, Vancouver, BC, Canada, V6T 1Z4.
准确的COVID-19感染估计揭示了严重的报告不足,特别是在三角洲变种浪潮期间. 报告的病例往往错过了超过三分之二的实际感染,低估了流行病的真正负担.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
背景情况:
- 由于无症状病例和报告延迟,很难确定COVID-19感染的真实时间和规模.
- 准确的感染估计对于了解流行病动态和疾病负担至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了追溯估计美国各州在Omicron变种之前每日发生的COVID-19感染情况.
- 通过计算报告不足的感染,更准确地量化疾病模式和疾病负担.
主要方法:
- 使用CDC行列延迟分布将报告的COVID-19病例分解为感染发病日期.
- 采用一种新的血清学驱动模型来扩大报告的病例和估计未报告的感染.
- 将变种特定的潜伏期,再感染和免疫力减弱纳入感染估计.
主要成果:
- 报告的COVID-19病例显著低估了美国所有州的真正疾病负担.
- 在三角洲波期间,感染严重报告不足,在新泽西州报告率低至6.3%.
- 在44个州,最终报告的感染人数不到三分之一,有些病例在病例报告中几乎无法检测到.
结论:
- 报告的COVID-19病例是疾病负担的不足代表,未能捕捉感染的全部程度.
- 追溯分析为公共卫生规划提供了关于报告不足,变种影响和感染率的关键数据.
- 准确的感染数据对于有效应对流行病和了解长期健康后果至关重要.
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