估计跨定义和样本选择形式的长期COVID-19流行率
Pietro Giorgio Lovaglio1, Fabio Borgonovo2, Alessandro Manzo Margiotta1
1Department of Statistics and Quantitative Methods, University of Milano Bicocca, Milan, Italy.
Frontiers in epidemiology
|June 16, 2025
概括
长期COVID的流行率很高,并且根据定义有所不同,选择偏差显著影响估计. 先进的统计建模揭示了一致的调整流行率,并确定了这种多系统状况的关键风险和保护因素.
科学领域:
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 长期COVID (LC) 呈现了SARS-CoV-2感染后持续的多系统症状,由于不同病例定义和方法,患病率估计有所变化.
- 了解LC患病率和相关因素对于有效的患者管理和公共卫生战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用多个定义 (WHO,NICE,3个月,6个月的症状) 来确定长期COVID的流行情况.
- 用先进的统计建模来纠正使用先进的统计建模在流行率估计中的选择偏差.
- 确定与长期COVID相关的风险和保护因素.
主要方法:
- 意大利米兰3344名COVID-19患者 (门诊患者和住院患者) 的回顾性观察研究 (2020-2021).
- 由世卫组织定义的LC,NICE标准以及感染后3个月和6个月的症状.
- 使用双变量审查的Probit模型来调整选择偏差.
主要成果:
- 未调整的LC患病率在67.4% (WHO) 到80.2% (3个月) 之间.
- 调整后的流行率估计在所有定义中都是一致的.
- 常见的症状包括疲劳,呼吸障碍和关节/肌肉疼痛. 女性性别,代谢疾病和年龄较大是危险因素;抗血小板药,他类药和低血糖药具有保护作用.
- 疫苗接种,化和抗生素与LC风险增加有关.
结论:
- 长期COVID的流行率很高,显著的选择偏差影响了门诊研究.
- 标准化定义和强大的流行病学方法对于准确的LC研究至关重要.
- 识别风险和保护因素有助于针对性干预和改善患者护理.
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