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冰川的不可逆转变化和几个世纪以来的低谷水在超过1.5°C之后
Lilian Schuster1, Fabien Maussion1,2, David R Rounce3
1Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences (ACINN), Univ. Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.
概括
即使是暂时超过1.5°C的全球变暖,也将导致不可逆转的冰川损失和数个世纪的减少水资源供应. 限制气候变暖可以避免对山地冰川和海平面的长期影响.
科学领域:
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 超过1.5°C的全球变暖对山地冰川构成风险.
- 对海平面和可用水的后果尚未完全理解.
研究的目的:
- 调查全球变暖过度影响山地冰川的不可逆转后果.
- 在不同的变暖情景下量化冰川质量损失和流水变化.
主要方法:
- 利用全球气候和冰川模拟.
- 峰值和下降变暖 (3.0°C) 与有限变暖 (1.5°C) 的建模场景.
主要成果:
- 超过1.5°C的升温会导致冰川在几个世纪内不可逆转的质量损失.
- 一个3.0°C的高峰和下降场景导致全球冰川质量损失增加11%,比1.5°C的极限减少2500.
- 在峰值变暖后的几十年到几百年里,在许多盆地观察到降低了冰川流水 ("低谷水").
结论:
- 暂时的温度过高对冰川产生了持久的负面影响.
- 迫切需要减少排放量,以缓解严重的,长期的冰川变化和水资源短缺.
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