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人类对气候的影响在19世纪末被发现
Benjamin D Santer1,2, Susan Solomon3, David W J Thompson4,5
1Physical Oceanography Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543.
概括
科学家们早在1885年就可以使用19世纪的数据和现代模型来检测人类引起的气候变化,特别是平流层的冷却. 这一早期发现突显了人类对全球气温的长期影响.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气物理学 大气物理学
- 古气候学 古气候学
背景情况:
- 二氧化碳 (CO2) 的捕热特性早在19世纪就已知.
- 化石燃料的燃烧显著增加了大气中的二氧化碳水平.
- 以前的研究还没有用现代工具探索气候变化的历史可检测性.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定人类造成的气候变化何时可以在19世纪被检测到.
- 将现代气候模型和观测网络假设应用于历史数据.
- 评估人类气候信号的尽早检测.
主要方法:
- 在一个思想实验中利用了最先进的气候模型.
- 从1860年开始,可以获得准确的大气温度测量数据.
- 应用了一种标准的"指纹"方法来识别气候变化信号.
主要成果:
- 大约在1885年,中至上层平流层的明显冷却趋势可以被识别出来.
- 这种平流层冷却主要是由人为二氧化碳增加所驱动的.
- 检测仍然是可行的,即使只有北半球中度数据,到1894年.
结论:
- 人类引起的气候变化,特别是平流层的冷却,在19世纪后期可以高信心地检测到.
- 平流层为早期气候变化检测提供了有利的信号对噪声特性.
- 有证据表明,人类对大气温度的影响已经存在了130多年.
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