来自格陵兰西北部的海平面贡献增加,用于复制观测结果的模型
Jessica A Badgeley1, Mathieu Morlighem1, Hélène Seroussi2
1Department of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755.
概括
冰盖模型中的过渡校准改进了格陵兰冰损失的历史模拟. 这种方法更好地捕捉冰的动态,可能导致未来海平面上升的更准确的预测.
科学领域:
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 计算建模 计算建模
背景情况:
- 目前的冰盖模型低估了格陵兰岛观察到的质量损失.
- 这种差异使人们对预测海平面上升的准确性产生了担忧.
研究的目的:
- 调查瞬态校准对冰盖模型模拟的影响.
- 将暂时校准与格陵兰西北部传统的快照倒置进行比较.
主要方法:
- 利用冰盖和海平面系统模型.
- 应用了即时倒置和短暂校准来限制基底摩擦.
- 用表面观测和时间依赖物理学的时间序列进行过渡校准.
主要成果:
- 快照逆转模拟低估了冰的速度和质量损失.
- 暂时校准改善了与观测速度和在观测误差范围内质量损失的匹配.
- 暂时校准稍微减少了对观察到的表面高度的适应.
结论:
- 重现历史高质量损失率对于准确的海平面上升预测至关重要.
- 过渡校准为限制冰流模型提供了更强大的方法.
- 需要进一步开发,以便将过渡性校准扩展到整个格陵兰冰盖.
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