重新审视农业害虫感染的人口模型
Giuseppe Buffoni1, Sara Pasquali1, Cinzia Soresina2
1CNR-IMATI "Enrico Magenes", via Alfonso Corti 12, Milano, 20133, Italy.
Journal of theoretical biology
|June 16, 2025
概括
这项研究介绍了一种害虫种群模型,该模型包含用于过冬生存的隔膜. 该模型突出了密度依赖的生育率.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 人口动态 人口动态
- 虫害管理 虫害管理 虫害管理
背景情况:
- 有效的害虫防治依赖于对害虫种群动态的准确模拟.
- 过冬的生存是害虫种群动态的一个关键因素,通常是通过断介导的.
研究的目的:
- 为过冬的害虫种群提供一个阶段结构化的人口模型.
- 在人口动力学模拟中明确纳入 diapause.
- 调查密度依赖的生育能力对人口调控的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发一个人口模型,考虑发展,死亡率,生育率和隔离期.
- 基于发育率和特定阶段死亡率的死亡率函数的制定.
- 在恒定和波动温度状态下对Lobesia botrana进行模拟.
主要成果:
- 密度依赖的生育能力对于在不同温度条件下调节人口增长至关重要.
- 恒温模拟显示趋于稳定状态的趋同,总密度取决于生育能力.
- 成人密度依赖的生育率导致周期性振荡.
- 隔离间隔促进季节性人口复苏,并在变化温度下降低峰值密度.
结论:
- 开发的人口模型准确地模拟了过冬的害虫种群动态.
- 在季节性害虫复苏和种群调控中,Diapause 发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 密度依赖的生育率是防止不受控制的人口增长的关键因素.
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