在老年人中开发和验证基于甲状腺功能的虚弱预测名录
Xiaotian Shi1,2, Huayu Yang1, Shan Wang1
1Department of Geriatrics, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, No. 95 Yong'an Road, Beijing, 100050, People's Republic of China.
European geriatric medicine
|June 17, 2025
概括
一个新的模型使用甲状腺激素水平 (FT3 / FT4) 和其他因素预测正常甲状腺功能的老年人的脆弱性. 这突显了甲状腺状况作为脆弱性的关键风险指标.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 内分泌学 在内分泌学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 脆弱性是人口老龄化的一个重大问题.
- 甲状腺功能对整体健康至关重要,但它在正常甲状腺功能的人群中对脆弱性的作用需要进一步调查.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个可预测的模型,以正常的甲状腺功能老年人的虚弱.
- 评估甲状腺激素水平对脆弱风险的贡献.
主要方法:
- 使用了767名老年人 (≥65岁) 的队列,随机分配到培训和验证组.
- 使用FRAIL尺度来评估脆弱性.
- LASSO和后勤回归确定了预测因素,包括FT3/FT4比率,用于基于名ogram的模型.
主要成果:
- 最终的模型包括年龄,多药,MNA.SF得分,握力和FT3/FT4比率.
- 该模型表现出强大的预测性能,在开发组中AUC值为0.92,在外部验证组中为0.80.
- 在FT3/FT4比率和脆弱性之间观察到负相关性,即使对混因素进行调整后也是如此.
结论:
- 成功开发了一种临床上适用的模型,用于预测正常甲状腺功能的老年人的脆弱性.
- 甲状腺激素状况,特别是FT3/FT4比率,是评估脆弱风险的重要因素.
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