预计到2040年代谢功能障碍相关的肥胖性肝病死亡率的趋势
Xinrong Zhang1, Sovann Linden1,2, Charles R Levesley1,3
1Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, School of Medicine, Stanford University Medical Center, Palo Alto, California.
JAMA network open
|June 17, 2025
概括
在美国,与代谢功能障碍相关的脂肪性肝病 (MASLD) 死亡率从2006年至2023年大幅上升,预计将继续增加. 差异在老年人,白人和西班牙裔个人以及非大都市人口中最为明显.
科学领域:
- 肝病学 肝病学是一种肝病学.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 对于美国与代谢功能障碍相关的脂肪性肝病 (MASLD) 相关的死亡率趋势和预测,基于人口的数据有限.
- MASLD是一个日益严重的公共卫生问题,具有显著的发病率和死亡率影响.
研究的目的:
- 检查2006年至2023年美国MASLD相关死亡率趋势.
- 预测到2040年的MASLD死亡率,按年龄,性别,种族和种族以及城市化而分为总体和子组.
主要方法:
- 这是一项使用国家生命统计系统数据集进行的横截面研究.
- 从2006年到2023年,对25岁及以上的成年人中因MASLD而导致的死亡的分析.
- 使用年龄标准化死亡率 (ASMR) 的年平均百分比变化 (AAPC) 和预测预测模型来评估趋势.
主要成果:
- 在2006年至2023年期间,与MASLD相关的死亡率从每10万人中从0.25增加到1.27,AAPC在2018-2021年期间达到顶峰.
- 在65岁及以上的个人中观察到的ASMR上升幅度最高,预计到2040年将增加到每10万人7.12.
- 在所有种族和民族群体中,特别是在非西班牙裔白人和西班牙裔个人以及非大都市地区,发现了显著的ASMR增加.
结论:
- 从2006年到2023年,美国与MASLD相关的死亡率呈现出快速增长.
- 预计死亡率在未来二十年内将继续上升.
- 在老年人,特定的种族/族群和非大都市人口中,MASLD死亡率存在显著差异,突出了针对性干预的需要.
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