气候变化及其对半干旱生态系统小麦分布的影响:阿曼苏丹国的案例研究
Khalifa M Al-Kindi1, Ali Hussain Al-Lawati2
1UNESCO Chair of Aflaj Studies, Archaeohydrology, University of Nizwa, Nizwa, Sultanate of Oman.
PloS one
|June 17, 2025
概括
这项研究使用最大 (MaxEnt) 模型来确定阿曼在气候变化下最佳的小麦种植区. 该模型准确地预测了适合小麦的地区,有助于未来的农业规划和粮食安全.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 环境建模环境建模
背景情况:
- 气候变化给农业的可持续性带来了重大挑战,特别是对于小麦等主食作物.
- 由于温度,降水和极端天气模式的变化,阿曼面临着对其农业部门的风险.
- 确定合适的种植区对于维持小麦生产和确保粮食安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了减轻气候变化对阿曼小麦生产的影响.
- 确定当前和未来时间段 (1970-2080年) 的最佳小麦种植区.
- 评估最大 (MaxEnt) 模型在不断变化的气候场景下对小麦适应性的预测性能.
主要方法:
- 利用最大 (MaxEnt) 模型来预测小麦分布.
- 分析了包括温度和降水在内的环境变量.
- 在四个时间段中使用曲线下的面积 (AUC) 度量来评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型表现出强大的预测性能,AUC得分始终高于0.8.
- AUC得分范围从0.82 (参考期) 到0.83 (2061-2080),表明可靠的预测.
- 该模型确定了阿曼适合种植小麦的地区,并为未来的气候场景预测了潜在的转移.
结论:
- 马克森特模型有效地识别了在不同气候条件下适合种植小麦的种植区.
- 结果为阿曼的长期农业规划和可持续实践提供了关键的见解.
- 整合预测建模对于适应气候变化的小麦生产和确保粮食安全的战略决策至关重要.
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