综合电气系统的概率能源流分析,考虑多种形式的不确定性
Yanqiu Hou1, Minglei Bao1, Yi Ding1
1College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China.
Fundamental research
|June 18, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一个新的框架来分析综合电气系统 (IEGS) 中的概率性能源流量,通过考虑多样化和时间变化的不确定性. 该方法改善了对能源供应能力的风险评估.
科学领域:
- 电气工程 电气工程
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 运营研究 运营研究
背景情况:
- 综合电气系统 (IEGS) 由于燃气发电机越来越普遍.
- 概率能源流量 (PEF) 分析对于评估IEGS运行状态至关重要.
- 现有的PEF方法在与同时时间变量的离散和连续不确定性作斗争.
研究的目的:
- 提出IEGS在多种不确定性下进行概率能量流分析的通用框架.
- 解决当前PEF方法关于时间变量不确定性的局限性.
- 提高IEGS运营风险和能源供应能力的估计.
主要方法:
- 用Lz转换技术将时间变化的组件状态和输出表示为概率模型.
- 定义一个最佳能量流 (OEF) 操作员,以汇总组件概率模型.
- 构建多维指数以分析概率的能量流特征和系统性能影响.
主要成果:
- 拟议的框架有效地模拟和分析了考虑到多种形式的不确定性的概率能量流.
- 能流的概率分布特征 (预期,标准偏差,偏差) 显式显示.
- 节点预期的天然气和未供应的电力指数评估了概率能源流对系统性能的影响.
结论:
- 该研究为IEGS的概率能量流分析提供了一个强大的方法,具有复杂的不确定性.
- 数字研究显示了能源流的多样化统计特征,不确定性对其产生不同的影响.
- 该框架允许对IEGS的能源供应能力进行更全面的风险评估.
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