预测老年人中心血管事件的短期风险:中国上海的一项回顾性研究
Wenqing Zhu1, Shuoyuan Tan2, Zhitong Zhou1
1Tongji University School of Medicine, Tongji University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
Clinical interventions in aging
|June 18, 2025
概括
这项研究开发了上海老年人短期心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险模型,确定了高血压和糖尿病等关键预测因素,以制定更好的预防策略.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 心血管疾病 (CVD) 是全球主要的健康问题,特别是在中国.
- 准确的心血管疾病风险预测和及时的预防性干预对于老年人群至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在中国上海,为60岁及以上的个人开发和验证短期心血管疾病风险预测模型.
- 在这个人口群体中确定CVD事件的显著预测因素.
主要方法:
- 使用分层随机抽样来招募老年人.
- 使用拉索-考克斯和多变量考克斯回归模型分析了2016-2022年的回顾性数据.
- 通过校准图和接收器运行特征曲线评估模型性能,通过nomogram可视化风险评分.
主要成果:
- 包括9,636名年龄≥60岁的个人.
- 确定的男性性别,年龄较大,BMI较高,静脉血压较高,禁食血葡萄糖水平较高,高血压,糖尿病和降脂药物使用是危险因素.
- 获得0.642 (培训) 和0.623 (验证) 的C指数,并进行了良好的校准.
结论:
- 开发的短期心血管疾病预测模型显示,对老年人来说,准确度很高,区分能力适度.
- 需要进一步的研究来完善预测因素,如性别,脂质资料,血压,高血压和药物使用,以加强心血管疾病预防.
相关概念视频
01:23Assessment of the Cardiovascular System I: Subjective Data
477
A thorough health history and physical assessment are essential for identifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) symptoms and distinguishing them from other health issues.
Initial Enquiry
Ask the patient about their primary concern and thoroughly explore all reported symptoms.
Medical History
Investigate past illnesses affecting the cardiovascular system, such as angina, anemia, rheumatic fever, congenital heart disease, stroke, thrombophlebitis, dysrhythmias, varicosities
Inquire about symptoms...
Initial Enquiry
Ask the patient about their primary concern and thoroughly explore all reported symptoms.
Medical History
Investigate past illnesses affecting the cardiovascular system, such as angina, anemia, rheumatic fever, congenital heart disease, stroke, thrombophlebitis, dysrhythmias, varicosities
Inquire about symptoms...
477
01:25Imaging Studies for Cardiovascular System VI: Calcium -Scoring CT
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Calcium-Scoring CT ScanA calcium-scoring CT scan, also known as coronary artery calcium (CAC) scan, detects calcium deposits in the coronary arteries. This test assesses the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD), which can lead to cardiovascular events such as angina, heart failure, and sudden cardiac arrest.A calcium-scoring CT scan is generally recommended for individuals at intermediate risk of CAD without symptoms. It includes:Men aged 40-75 and women aged 50-75: Especially those with a...
130
01:26Coronary Artery Disease IV: Preventive Measures
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Effective preventive measures for coronary artery disease (CAD) focus on controlling modifiable risk factors, including cholesterol abnormalities and lifestyle changes.Cholesterol ManagementFirst, the Mediterranean diet and the American Heart Association advocate for maintaining low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels below 100 mg/dL, with a more stringent recommendation of below 70 mg/dL for individuals at high risk. LDL cholesterol, often termed "bad cholesterol," can lead to the...
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