从当前到未来的预测:在气候变化下使用MaxEnt对中国的Hibiscus syriacus L.的息地适应性变化进行建模
Jing Xu1,2,3, Yanghui Zhao1,2,3, Chuncheng Wang1,2,3
1College of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, Hunan, China.
Frontiers in plant science
|June 18, 2025
概括
气候变化对希比斯克斯 (Syrian ketmia) 的息地产生了重大影响. 温度和降水的变化将改变适合生长的地区,预计到20世纪50年代扩张,然后到20世纪70年代下降.
科学领域:
- 生态建模 生态建模
- 生物地理学 生物地理学 生物地理学
- 气候变化影响研究 气候变化影响研究
背景情况:
- 希比斯克斯 (Hibiscus syriacus L. Malvaceae) 是广泛用于装饰和实际用途的植物.
- 了解环境因素和地理分布模式对于这种物种至关重要.
- 目前对H.syriacus息地适应性驱动因素的知识有限.
研究的目的:
- 评估Hibiscus syriacus目前和未来的息地适应性.
- 确定影响其分布的关键环境变量.
- 在气候变化情景下,预测适合息地的潜在变化.
主要方法:
- 利用MaxEnt模型进行物种分布建模.
- 采用了185个事件记录和20个环境变量.
- 在SSP585情景下分析了当前和预计的未来分布 (2050年代和2070年代).
主要成果:
- 目前适合息地的面积为188.81×10^4平方公里.
- 温度和降水是H.syriacus分布的主要驱动因素.
- 适合息地面积预计将在2050年代扩大 (特别是在SSP585下),并在2070年代下降,向西南转移.
结论:
- 气候变化显著影响H.syriacus的息地适宜性.
- 温度和降水变化推动了息地转移和迁移模式.
- 这些发现为开发H.syriacus.种植区和保护战略提供了基础.
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