在西藏的Phlomoides rotata的潜在息地是基于一个优化的MaxEnt模型
Jun-Wei Wang1,2, Min Xu3, Norbu Ngawang1
1Key Laboratory of Biodiversity and Environment on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Ministry of Education, School of Ecology and Environment, Tibet University, Lhasa, Xizang, China.
Frontiers in plant science
|June 18, 2025
概括
西藏药用植物Phlomoides rotata因过度采摘和气候变化而面临生存威胁. 预计其适合的息地将在未来的排放下缩小,向西北转移.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 生物地理学 生物地理学 生物地理学
背景情况:
- Phlomoides rotata是一种重要的西藏药用植物,具有重要的生态作用.
- 过度采摘和气候变化正在减少其分布,对其生存构成威胁.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用优化的MaxEnt模型,预测和分析Phlomoides rotata在西藏的潜在合适分布.
- 确定关键的环境驱动因素,并评估气候变化对其息地的影响.
主要方法:
- 采用了优化的MaxEnt模型,整合了现场调查数据和多个环境变量.
- 使用真实技能统计 (TSS) 和科恩的卡帕系数 (Kappa) 验证了预测准确性.
主要成果:
- 在目前的气候条件下,合适的息地面积为33.31×10^4平方公里,主要在高山草原和稀疏的灌木中.
- 土地覆盖类型,温度季节性和植被类型是主要的分布驱动因素.
- 未来的气候场景显示,在低排放 (SSP126) 环境下,息地扩张,在中高排放 (SSP245,SSP585) 环境下,息地收缩,气候将向西北转移.
结论:
- 确定了影响Phlomoides rotata分布及其对气候变化的反应的关键因素.
- 这些发现支持资源管理,保护和可持续利用这一宝贵的西藏药用植物.
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